There’s new evidence from Google itself, that Google’s search results are not neutral, as Google has long publicly represented them to be, and as Google expects everyone on the Open Internet to be.

  • (Kudos to famed trustbuster Gary Reback for unearthing the core information that I spotlight in this post; it is from Mr. Reback’s friend-of-the-court brief for the Open Book Alliance, which opposes the Google Book Settlement. Don’t miss pages 14-16.)

Google now admits that its search results are not neutral despite longstanding public representations to the contrary.

  • From Google’s corporate philosophy statement:
    • We never manipulate rankings to put our partners higher in our search results and no one can buy better PageRank.
  • Google spokeperson Gabriel Stricker per the Washington Post 11-6-09 indicates Google indeed manipulates its search rankings to put its Google-owned partners higher in its search results:
    • Sometimes that means that our own properties could come up first, such as in case that you cited, maps, and that happens when it gives them a quick answer that benefits users. But apart from those situations, these are organic search results that are determined algorithmically and change all the time.”
  • The Wall Street Journal also reported 1-19-10 that Google is not neutral in the auction ranking of its search ads either:
    • “…advertisers often wonder whether Google’s ads are changing the ranking of their own. He also noted that buying ads for certain corporate issues–such as the cyber attacks–but not others could “raise some questions” about why the company is highlighting certain topics over others.”
  • And the PBS Newshour quoted Google Book Head Daniel Clancy 12-30-09:
    • Every time you search Google, you’re searching 12 million books.”
    • It is critical to understand here that the 12 million books, to which Google is referring, and which Google has added to its search results, were illegally copied without copyright permission, and are part of the pending not-yet-approved Google Book Settlement which explicitly and non-neutrally blocks other search engines from being able crawl and search these 12 million digital books.
      • (It is also important to appreciate Mr. Reback’s outstanding observation in his friend-of-the-court brief on the Book Settlement (p. 15) that Google has gone ahead and admitted it has incorporated its 12 million illegally copied books into its search algorithm, apparently after the DOJ made clear in its statement of interest that it believed these books were illegally copied and that exclusively incorporating them into Google’s search engine and denying competitors access to them was anticompetitive.)

In sum, Google admits it is manipulating its search results non-neutrally, despite the longstanding promise on its corporate website that it would “never manipulate rankings to put our partners higher.”

Moreover, Google is also thumbing its nose at DOJ antitrust authorities by ignoring DOJ’s strong statement of interest views concerning how Google should operate its world’s largest digital book archive.

 

Most have missed that there’s a big antitrust showdown happening this week.

  • February 4th, the DOJ must file a second round of comments on the Google Book Settlement 2.0 with Federal District Court Judge Chin, after Google almost completely ignored DOJ’s substantial legal objections in its Book Settlement 2.0 revision.

The Google-DOJ showdown in a nutshell:

  • The DOJ’s 9-18-09 Statement or Interest made clear DOJ believes the settlement is likely illegal under three completely different bodies of law (class action, copyright and antitrust), and also may be per se illegal in multiple different ways. (analysis here.)
  • Google and the other parties, in their 2.0 revision of the Book Settlement, almost completely ignored the DOJ’s stated legal concerns.
  • If Google and the parties do not address the DOJ’s concerns in advance of the DOJ’s second statement of interest filing due February 4th, the DOJ will be thrust into law enforcement mode.

This is a big deal.

  • The DOJ has drawn a line in the sand that the Google Book Settlement as configured is illegal and anticompetitive.  
  •  If Google continues to flout multiple laws and thumb their noses at the DOJ’s views, the DOJ will have no choice but to enforce its position and its authority.
  • In the end, I doubt the substantial political pressure Google is trying to put on the DOJ will deter DOJ from doing its job, enforcing the law, and backing up its analysis and conclusions with action.

It appears Google has no clue how far out of bounds they are in this Book Settlement.

In the last year, Google has taken almost a third of the search revenue market share that they did not have before — per recent company reports.

  • In other words, Google’s search revenue share increased from 90% in 4Q08 to 93% in 4Q09.
  • To understand the math, supporting numbers,and links behind this estimate see the end of this post.

Google’s 4Q09 earnings release also shows Google is exercising its market pricing power at the expense of web publishers by reducing the revenue share percentage shared with web publishers (i.e. raising prices) because web publishers have no where else to go; please see the illuminating analysis by Amit Agarwal of Digital Inspiration blog who deserves credit for this important insight.

  • Not only does his analysis show that the revenue Google shares with its web publisher “partners” is going down from 75% at the beginning of 2009 to 72.1% at the end of 2009, these percentages actually understate the price increases imposed upon web publishers because the data masks that the total numbers involve more publishers getting relatively smaller pieces of the overall pie.

So what are the takeaways here?

First, Google is indeed a monopoly and only growing more dominant quickly.

Second, Google is abusing that dominance by raising prices on web publishers that have no real competitive alternative.

Third, these facts make it more likely that:

  • The DOJ will eventually approve the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo’s search businesses;
  • The DOJ will take a hard line on the Google Book Settlement; and
  • The FTC will take a hard line on Google’s proposed acquisition of mobile advertising leader, AdMob.

Worksheet for 90-93% share estimate:

The evidence of this massive increase in market share can be found in the 4Q09 company reports of Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft, and it is straightforward and not hard to derive. See my analysis below.

  • Google’s 4Q09 $6.67B dominant share of search advertising revenues increased $970m or 17% (4Q09/4Q08).
  • Yahoo’s 4Q09 $370m #2 weakening share of search advertising revenues decreased $66m or 15% (4Q09/4Q08).
  • Microsoft’s search advertising revenues are much smaller, roughly half of Yahoo’s and they are obviously falling substantially as well. Microsoft’s online advertising revenues, (of which search is only a portion) were $581m in 4Q09 and decreased $285m or 33% (4Q09/4Q08).
    • For comparative purposes, if we assume Microsoft’s search share of its online business is the same as Yahoo’s search share is of its business — ~21%, this rough proxy of Microsoft’s search advertising business would mean Microsoft’s search advertising revenue proxy decreased $59m or 33% from $181m in 4Q08 to $122m in 4Q09.
  • All other publicly traded entities search advertising is provided by Google on an outsourced or syndicated basis, so the analysis for all intents and purposes involves three companies: Google, Yahoo and Microsoft.

Putting all this together:

  • 4Q08 search advertising revenues of Google $5,700m, Yahoo $436m and Microsoft ~$181m equal ~$6,317m.
  • 4Q09 search advertising revenues of Google $6,670m, Yahoo $370m and Microsoft ~122m equal ~7,162m.
  • 4Q08 Google’s search advertising revenue share is 5,700/6317 = 90% revenue market share.
  • 4Q09 Google’s search advertising share is 6670/7162 = 93% revenue market share.

 

At core the FCC’s contemplation of reclassifying, or effectively treating, unregulated broadband info services as regulated telecom services, would be tantamount to the FCC declaring “eminent domain” over private broadband providers, i.e. justifying a government takings of private property for public uses, but doing so “without just compensation” or any statutory authority.

  • The U.S. Constitution’s Fifth Amendment requires: “nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.”
A gaping missing element in all the FCC’s discussions of all the new “public uses” it envisions for broadband in its pending National Broadband Plan and its proposed preemptive Open Internet regulations is any consideration at all of the potential hundreds of billions of dollars of un-budgeted liability to the U.S. Treasury that could result from the takings of private network property without just compensation — at a time of skyrocketing trillion dollar Federal budget deficits and rapidly mounting public debt.

  • The FCC appears to be operating under the sweeping and heroic presumption that any prospective FCC regulatory action it may take here is essentially cost-free to the U.S. taxpayer and will be completely shouldered by broadband shareholders; in other words, the Fifth Amendment appears to be irrelevant to FCC decisionmaking.
  • It also appears that some at the FCC take the legally extreme stance that the FCC can put most any effective property easement for new “public uses” on private and competitive broadband networks (that three FCC commissioners declare is the “public interest”) without incurring any public liability for the U.S. taxpayer.

A supremely grand and untested assumption here is that the FCC can do whatever it did in a pre-1996 monopoly regulatory environment (which guaranteed monopolies a rate of return to address takings concerns), in a competitive broadband environment where carriers operate at market risk of bankruptcy without any guarantee of a rate of return.

  • It appears that some at the FCC are totally ignoring that:
    • The factual and market predicate underlying the FCC’s 1934 Title I statutory authority has changed 180 degrees since the passage of the 1996 Telecom Act and the subsequent successful development of an increasingly competitive broadband market; and
    • The strong, fifteen-year-old, bipartisan consensus in Congress to not regulate or tax the Internet.
  • It is supremely ironic that those who claim to have a forward-looking 21st century market and innovation perspective for the broadband Internet, choose to look at the world through short-sighted 1934 legal lenses that can’t even see beyond 1996.

1. Why would the FCC’’s contemplated regulations/plan implicate “Eminent Domain?”

Public use: The FCC’s National Broadband Plan reportedly will propose ~40 FCC rulemakings and many changes to existing law to advance a wide variety of stated “public uses” for broadband: telemedicine and e-health records to improve health care and lower costs; smart grid to lower energy usage; e-learning to improve education and lower costs; improve public transparency and democratic processes; among many other “public uses” for broadband.

  • FreePress calls for the FCC to “treat broadband as essential infrastructure.”
  • Public Knowledge said in its filing that “reclassification would facilitate numerous goals previously cited by the Commission as critical to the success of the NBP” (National Broadband Plan).

Condemnation via Eminent Domain: Many of the regulatory powers envisioned by some at the FCC in the National Broadband Plan and the proposed Open Internet regulations effectively involve the FCC taking de facto control over parts of private networks in a form of a permanent regulatory “easement” on broadband network providers’ network property for a public use that deprives the owners from much of the benefit of their property.

  • Interestingly much of the political justification for upcoming FCC regulatory action is the condemnation by some that the U.S. broadband system is effectively “blighted” requiring government intervention (some allege the U.S. is falling behind the rest of the world in access and available speeds and some allege that property owners have interests to behave “non-neutrally” in the absence of government control over networks.)
    • The clear message of net neutrality proponents has been that government could do a better job than the market in achieving broadband leadership in the world and maintaining a neutral/open Internet — yet they offer zero evidence or argumentation to support their assertion.
  • Moreover, the FCC has effectively conflated the National Broadband Plan and its proposed preemptive Open Internet regulations by doing them concurrently and justifying them with many of the same “public use” arguments and desired outcomes.

2. The FCC does not have Eminent Domain authority.

  • The constitutional power of takings for public use with just compensation resides with the legislative branch, the U.S. Congress in this instance, not the FCC, an independent agency, which has unelected commissioners and which does not have specific delegated statutory authority from Congress to engage in the taking of private property with just compensation.
  • Moreover, any “just compensation” for any FCC takings of private property for public use under the U.S. Constitution would have to be authorized and appropriated by Congress — in advance.

3. What would be just compensation?

Just compensation for the takings envisioned by some at the FCC could involve hundreds of billions of dollars over time.

  • The FCC estimates it could cost as much as ~$350B to bring world class broadband service to all Americans per WSJ reports.
  • Another book end is that the enterprise value of U.S. broadband providers is >$600B per Yahoo Finance.
  • By any measure the market value of these private broadband networks is hundreds of billions of dollars.

In sum, the FCC is clearly envisioning justifying new Open Internet regulations and the ~40 rulemakings in the National Broadband Plan by declaring that they advance multiple important “public uses.”

  • To the extent that those “public uses” involve an effective easement on private network owners property rights that the providers do not voluntarily agree to, and that devalues the property to them, broadband providers have a strong constitutional argument for “just compensation” from the U.S. Treasury.

Moreover, the FCC does not have the constitutional or statutory authority to compel competitive private network providers — that are not monopolies — to essentially cede their property to the U.S. Government without just compensation from the U.S. Treasury.

Given that the Adminstration just submitted a $3.8 trillion 2011 Federal Budget to Congress that includes no estimates for the unfunded liability of the FCC’s National Broadband Plan or the FCC’s proposed preemptive Open Internet regulations, the House and Senate Budget Committees should insist that the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and the General Accounting Office (GAO) should study and estimate the potential long-term cost liability to the U.S. taxpayer of just compensation to private broadband providers if the FCC implements rules or proposes laws that effectively take private broadband property for public uses.

Simply, the FCC does not have a “blank check” from the U.S. taxpayer to do whatever it wants.

My vote for quote of the month on Google was “If Google can drop China, it can drop you.”

This profound razor-sharp insight was said by Howard Shelanski, speaking for himself, not the Federal Trade Commission, at the Free State Foundation’s annual conference at the National Press Club in Washington DC on Friday.

Mr. Shelanski is currently Deputy Director of the Bureau of Economics at the FTC, a former Chief economist at the FCC, and a widely respected economist and antitrust expert.

I am spotlighting his quote because it sheds light on the broader implications of the world censorship policeman role Google is asserting for itself in the world.

If Google is going to take the position that it unilaterally will withdraw access to its search engine from hundreds of millions of Chinese, if the Chinese Government does not do what Google tells it to do, it puts everyone else in the world on notice that Google has the power, interest and wherewithal to withdraw access to its search engine to anyone who might disagree with Google politically.